Rating: Negative
Stock Market Performance
Why we watch it:
The stock market tends to be forward looking and it is a leading indicator of economic growth.
Recent Highlights:
Domestic and international equities were both down for the month. The S&P 500 was down -2.3% in February. Domestic mid and small cap equities decreased -1.8% and -0.6%, respectively. The S&P 500 is down -2.3% over the last three months and down -7.7% over the last twelve months.
The international index (MSCI ACWI ex-US) was down -4.3% in February. The index is up 3.6% over the last three months and down -6.7% over the last twelve months.
Equities reversed course in February after solid January returns. Concerns over inflation and the Fed’s response crept back into the markets.
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Negative Since June 2022
Rating: Positive
Consumer Spending
Why we watch it:
Over 70% of the U.S. economy is based on personal consumption. A reduction in consumer spending will cause slower growth in the economy.
Recent Highlights:
Consumer spending increased 1.8% in January, above the consensus of 1.3%. Consumer spending can be volatile from one month to the next.
The second estimate of Q4 2022 consumer spending recorded a 1.4% increase, below the first estimate of 2.1%.
Personal income increased 0.6% in January.
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Positive Since June 2022
Rating: Neutral
Manufacturing Activity
Why we watch it:
The health of the economy is dependent on the health of the manufacturing sector. Historically, it has been the path to development and an important driver of economic growth. Domestic manufacturing activity is tracked by the Institute of Supply Management (ISM), which releases a monthly index while global activity is tracked by J.P.Morgan and IHS Market in association with ISM and IFPSM. The index monitors data like employment, production inventories, new orders and supplier deliveries. It is based on surveys of more than 300 manufacturing firms, and it’s considered an important economic measure. The index value ranges between 0 and 100. A value below 50 may indicate a slowdown in the economy, especially if the trend persists over several months. A value above 50 likely indicates a time of economic growth. Similarly, Global Manufacturing PMI is produced by IHS Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM. It is compiled by IHS Markit from responses to monthly questionnaires sent to purchasing managers in survey panels in over 40 countries, totaling around 13,500 companies. It has the same value ranges as the ISM manufacturing report.
Recent Highlights:
ISM manufacturing reported 47.7 in February. This is below the 50.0 break-even point, signaling a slowdown in the manufacturing sector. This is the fourth consecutive month below 50.0. New orders reported 42.5, also below the 50.0 mark.
Global PMI posted a reading of 50.0 in February, halting a five-month run of signaling contraction. Production was led by Asia, fueled by the re-opening process in China.
Neutral Since August 2022
Rating: Negative
Consumer Price Stability
Why we watch it:
Mild inflation is good for the economy, because it promotes consumption without destroying the value of people's savings. If you know something will be going up slightly in price down the road, you'll be more likely to purchase it now. If this effect is mild, it doesn't hurt savings rates very much. Deflation, however, punishes an economy because it hurts consumption. If you know something will be cheaper tomorrow or next year, you're more likely to wait until tomorrow to buy it. The Fed’s inflation target is 2 %.
Recent Highlights:
Headline CPI increased 0.5% in January. Over the last 12 months, CPI rose 6.4%. This is below December’s reading of 6.5%, but above the expected value of 6.2%. Inflation has been consistently declining year-over-year since July’s high of 9.1%, however it’s still much higher than the Fed’s 2% target. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.4% in January. Over the last 12 months, core CPI rose 5.6%. This is also below December’s reading, but above the expected value of 5.5%.
Negative Since: June 2021
Rating: Neutral
Housing Market
Why we watch it:
The economy typically benefits directly and indirectly from increased housing activity. It is estimated that for every $100 in value resulting from housing construction, an extra $40-$80 is added to the economy due to housing-related spending.
Recent Highlights:
Total existing home sales decreased -0.7% in January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.00 million units. Sales in total fell -36.9% from a year ago.
The median existing-home price in January was $359,000, up 1.3% from January 2022. This marks 131 straight months of year-over-year gains. Unsold inventory is at about a 2.9-month supply. A three to six-month supply is considered a healthy balance between supply and demand.
New home sales increased 7.2% in January to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 670,000. The median sale price of new homes sold in January was $427,500. Unsold inventory is at about 7.9-month supply. Note that the new home sales report is typically very volatile and the data is frequently revised.
Neutral Since October 2022
Rating: Negative
Volatility
Why we watch it:
VIX is the symbol for the Chicago Board Options Exchange's volatility index. It’s a weighted mix of the prices for a blend of S&P 500 Index options, from which implied volatility is derived. In other words, it measures how much people are willing to pay to buy or sell the S&P 500. The VIX goes up when there’s turmoil in the market, and goes down when investors are content or at ease with the economic outlook.
We like to watch the VIX, because it measures the cost of buying insurance for stock protection (through options). When the cost of protection is high, volatility is usually high, and the potential for declining stock values is higher.
Recent Highlights:
The VIX started February around 19.6 and hit a high near the middle of the month at 23.3. It ended February at 20.7. This is relatively calm compared to some of the volatility seen throughout 2022. However, it is slightly above the historical average of 19.2.
Negative Since October 2022
Rating: Positive
TED Spread
Why we watch it:
The TED Spread is the banks’ cost of borrowing short-term money minus the Treasury’s cost of borrowing short-term money. The difference between the three-month LIBOR interest rate and the three-month Treasury Bill interest rate measures the degree of riskiness of the bank lending market. When the spread is significant, banks worry about being repaid when loaning money to other banks, thereby creating uncertainty. This can cause slower growth in the economy.
Recent Highlights:
The current spread at the end of February was 0.23% (3-Month LIBOR 4.97% – 3-Month Treasury Bill 4.74%). Both indicators in the TED spread increased as the Fed has been raising interest rates. The current TED spread of 0.23% is below the historical average spread of about 0.57%.
Positive Since June 2020
