Bedel Barometer

Back in 2009, we identified key areas that have historically been strong indicators of the strength in the U.S. economy. The idea was to use these indicators to determine whether the economy was going to rebound or remain in crisis mode in the year ahead.

In the short run, the Bedel Barometer should be used as a measure of the overall health of the U.S. economy—not as a sign of the health of the stock market. In the long run, the health of the U.S. economy should have a significant impact on the performance of the stock market.

Here is how each indicator currently stacks up and its importance: 

BEDEL BAROMETER

Last updated June 2024

+7

+6

+5

+4

+3

+2

+1

0

-1

-2

-3

-4

-5

-6

-7

Current Score

+4

What's this?

The Bedel Barometer was developed in 2009 to provide a measure of the overall health of the U.S. economy. To do this, we identified 7 key areas that have historically been strong indicators as to the strength of our economy. Using a score of either positive, negative or neutral, we assign a value to each of these and are able to combine the results and reflect the overall measure that you see today.

How each indicator stacks up today

The Bedel Barometer offers a comprehensive measure of the overall health of the U.S. economy.

Rating: Positive

Stock Market Performance

Why we watch it:

The stock market tends to be forward looking and it is a leading indicator of economic growth.

Recent Highlights:

Domestic and international equities both posted strong returns for the month of May. The S&P 500 was up 5.0% in May. Domestic mid- and small-cap equities increased 2.9% and 5.0%, respectively. The S&P 500 is up 3.9% over the last three months and up 28.2% over the last twelve months.

The international index (MSCI ACWI ex-US) was up 3.0% in May. The index is up 4.5% over the last three months and up 17.3% over the last twelve months.

The S&P 500 recovered from its April decline of -4.2% and posted its 23rd new closing high of the year.

 

*Positive Since January 2024

Rating: Positive

Consumer Spending

Why we watch it:

Over 70% of the U.S. economy is based on personal consumption. A reduction in consumer spending will cause slower growth in the economy.

Recent Highlights:

Consumer spending increased 0.2% in April, below estimates. Consumer spending has been very strong over the last several months but can still be volatile from one month to the next.

The second estimate of Q1 2024 consumer spending recorded a 2.0% increase. This is below the first estimate of 2.5%.

Personal income increased 0.3% in April, in line with expectations.

Positive Since June 2022

Rating: Neutral

Manufacturing Activity

Why we watch it:

The health of the economy is dependent on the health of the manufacturing sector. Historically, it has been the path to development and an important driver of economic growth. Domestic manufacturing activity is tracked by the Institute of Supply Management (ISM), which releases a monthly index while global activity is tracked by J.P.Morgan and IHS Market in association with ISM and IFPSM. The index monitors data like employment, production inventories, new orders and supplier deliveries. It is based on surveys of more than 300 manufacturing firms, and it’s considered an important economic measure. The index value ranges between 0 and 100. A value below 50 may indicate a slowdown in the economy, especially if the trend persists over several months. A value above 50 likely indicates a time of economic growth. Similarly, Global Manufacturing PMI is produced by IHS Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM. It is compiled by IHS Markit from responses to montlhly questionnaires sent to purchasing managers in survey panels in over 40 countries, totaling around 13,500 companies. It has the same value ranges as the ISM manufacturing report.

Recent Highlights:

ISM manufacturing reported 48.7 in May, below expectations. This reading is below the 50.0 break-even point, signaling a contraction . New orders reported 45.4, below expectations.

Global PMI posted a reading of 50.9 in May. This is also the fifth month in a row of expansion. This recent expansion is due to intakes of new businesses, completion of backlogs of work, and improved international trade flows.

Neutral Since April 2024

Rating: Neutral

Consumer Price Stability

Why we watch it:

Mild inflation is good for the economy, because it promotes consumption without destroying the value of people's savings. If you know something will be going up slightly in price down the road, you'll be more likely to purchase it now. If this effect is mild, it doesn't hurt savings rates very much. Deflation, however, punishes an economy because it hurts consumption. If you know something will be cheaper tomorrow or next year, you're more likely to wait until tomorrow to buy it. The Fed’s inflation target is 2 %.

Recent Highlights:

Headline CPI increased 0.3% in April. Over the last 12 months, CPI rose 3.4%, in line with expectations. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.3% in April. Over the last 12 months, core CPI rose 3.6%. This is in line with expectations. While inflation has been declining, we want to see it under 3%.

Neutral Since: December 2023

Rating: Neutral

Housing Market

Why we watch it:

The economy typically benefits directly and indirectly from increased housing activity. It is estimated that for every $100 in value resulting from housing construction, an extra $40-$80 is added to the economy due to housing-related spending.

Recent Highlights:

Total existing home sales decreased -1.9% in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.14 million units. Sales in total fell -1.9% from one year ago.

The median existing-home price in April was $407,600. This is the tenth consecutive month of year-over-year price increases. Unsold inventory is at about a 3.5-month supply. A three to six-month supply is considered a healthy balance between supply and demand.

New home sales decreased -4.7% in April to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 665,000. The median sale price of new homes sold in April was $433,500. Unsold inventory is at about 9.1-month supply. Note that the new home sales report is typically very volatile and the data is frequently revised.

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate ended May around 7.0%.

Neutral Since October 2022

Rating: Positive

Volatility

Why we watch it:

VIX is the symbol for the Chicago Board Options Exchange's volatility index. It’s a weighted mix of the prices for a blend of S&P 500 Index options, from which implied volatility is derived. In other words, it measures how much people are willing to pay to buy or sell the S&P 500. The VIX goes up when there’s turmoil in the market, and goes down when investors are content or at ease with the economic outlook.

We like to watch the VIX, because it measures the cost of buying insurance for stock protection (through options). When the cost of protection is high, volatility is usually high, and the potential for declining stock values is higher.

Recent Highlights:

The VIX started May around 15.4 and ended the month at 12.9. It remained very calm throughout the month. The historical average is 19.2.

Positive Since July 2023

Rating: Positive

TED Spread

Why we watch it:

The TED Spread is the banks’ cost of borrowing short-term money minus the Treasury’s cost of borrowing short-term money. The difference between the three-month LIBOR interest rate and the three-month Treasury Bill interest rate measures the degree of riskiness of the bank lending market.  When the spread is significant, banks worry about being repaid when loaning money to other banks, thereby creating uncertainty. This can cause slower growth in the economy.

Recent Highlights:

The current spread at the end of May was 0.18% (3-Month LIBOR 5.43% – 3-Month Treasury Bill 5.26%). The LIBOR changed very little, while the 3-Month Treasury Bill remained flat. The current TED spread of 0.18% is below the historical average spread of about 0.57%.

Positive Since June 2020

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. As of June 6, 2024 the current score for the Bedel Barometer is +4.

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The material has been gathered from sources believed to be reliable, however Bedel Financial Consulting, Inc. cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of such information, and certain information presented here may have been condensed or summarized from its original source. To determine which investments or planning strategies may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor or other industry professional prior to investing or implementing a planning strategy. This information is not intended to provide legal advice, and nothing contained in these materials should be taken as such. Advisory services are only offered where Bedel Financial Consulting, Inc. and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. No advice may be rendered unless a client agreement is in place.